Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Gea
To win
+$17.60
Total payout
$37.60
Joint prob
56.3%
Combined odds
1.88
Fair odds
1.78
Edge
+5.8%
Expected value: +$1.17 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.17 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 56.3% · fair market: 51.7% · edge: +8.9%
Model probabilities Jan-Lennard Struff 43.7% · Arthur Gea 56.3% Why Arthur Gea is favoured Arthur Gea's Elo (1537) is +26 over Jan-Lennard Struff (1511); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 42.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 43.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 56.3% vs market 51.7% (edge +8.9%, suggested Kelly +6.6% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.