Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Diana Shnaider
To win
+$12.40
Total payout
$32.40
Joint prob
62.2%
Combined odds
1.62
Fair odds
1.61
Edge
+0.8%
Expected value: +$0.15 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.15 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.2% · fair market: 59.9% · edge: +3.8%
Model probabilities Taylor Townsend 37.8% · Diana Shnaider 62.2% Why Diana Shnaider is favoured Diana Shnaider's Elo (1696) is +44 over Taylor Townsend (1652); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 62.2% vs market 59.9% (edge +3.8%, suggested Kelly +1.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.