Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Zeynep Sonmez
To win
+$25.40
Total payout
$45.40
Joint prob
59.6%
Combined odds
2.27
Fair odds
1.68
Edge
+35.4%
Expected value: +$7.08 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.08 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.6% · fair market: 42.5% · edge: +40.2%
Model probabilities Daria Kasatkina 40.4% · Zeynep Sonmez 59.6% Why Zeynep Sonmez is favoured Daria Kasatkina's Elo (1569) is +17 over Zeynep Sonmez (1552); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 55.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 40.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 59.6% vs market 42.5% (edge +40.2%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.