Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Mirra Andreeva
To win
+$6.60
Total payout
$26.60
Joint prob
80.6%
Combined odds
1.33
Fair odds
1.24
Edge
+7.2%
Expected value: +$1.43 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.43 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.6% · fair market: 72.5% · edge: +11.2%
Model probabilities Mirra Andreeva 80.6% · Leylah Fernandez 19.4% Why Mirra Andreeva is favoured Mirra Andreeva's Elo (1811) is +158 over Leylah Fernandez (1653); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 80.6% vs market 72.5% (edge +11.2%, suggested Kelly +21.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.