Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Joao Fonseca
To win
+$12.00
Total payout
$32.00
Joint prob
69.6%
Combined odds
1.60
Fair odds
1.44
Edge
+11.4%
Expected value: +$2.29 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.29 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 69.6% · fair market: 54.2% · edge: +28.6%
Model probabilities Stefanos Tsitsipas 30.4% · Joao Fonseca 69.6% Why Joao Fonseca is favoured Joao Fonseca's Elo (1708) is +76 over Stefanos Tsitsipas (1632); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 69.6% vs market 54.2% (edge +28.6%, suggested Kelly +19.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.