Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Felix Auger-Aliassime
To win
+$4.60
Total payout
$24.60
Joint prob
88.7%
Combined odds
1.23
Fair odds
1.13
Edge
+9.1%
Expected value: +$1.81 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.81 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 88.7% · fair market: 78.4% · edge: +13.1%
Felix Auger-Aliassime, ranked world No. 4 and the second seed, is set to begin his Canadian Open campaign in his hometown of Montreal after a month-long break from competition. He aims to secure his first ATP Masters 1000 title, a feat he has yet to achieve in his career.
Lineup: As the No. 2 seed, Auger-Aliassime received a bye into the second round and will face Titouan Droguet, who advanced through qualifying.
Titouan Droguet, currently ranked 119th in the world, has successfully navigated the qualifying rounds of the ATP Canadian Open with two impressive victories. He enters the second round with significant momentum, having never lost a match in Canada.
Lineup: Droguet, a qualifier, has earned his spot in the main draw and is scheduled to face second seed Felix Auger-Aliassime in the second round.
“Felix Auger-Aliassime, the second seed and hometown favorite, faces qualifier Titouan Droguet in the Canadian Open second round, with Droguet carrying strong momentum from qualifying wins.”
Model probabilities Titouan Droguet 11.3% · Felix Auger-Aliassime 88.7% Why Felix Auger-Aliassime is favoured Felix Auger-Aliassime's Elo (1800) is +271 over Titouan Droguet (1529); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 88.7% vs market 78.4% (edge +13.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). News context Felix Auger-Aliassime, the second seed and hometown favorite, faces qualifier Titouan Droguet in the Canadian Open second round, with Droguet carrying strong momentum from qualifying wins. Titouan Droguet: Felix Auger-Aliassime, ranked world No. 4 and the second seed, is set to begin his Canadian Open campaign in his hometown of Montreal after a month-long break from competition. He aims to secure his first ATP Masters 1000 title, a feat he has yet to achieve in his career. Felix Auger-Aliassime: Titouan Droguet, currently ranked 119th in the world, has successfully navigated the qualifying rounds of the ATP Canadian Open with two impressive victories. He enters the second round with significant momentum, having never lost a match in Canada.