Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Novak Djokovic
To win
+$9.20
Total payout
$29.20
Joint prob
81.5%
Combined odds
1.46
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
+18.9%
Expected value: +$3.78 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.78 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.5% · fair market: 66.4% · edge: +22.6%
Model probabilities Novak Djokovic 81.5% · Valentin Vacherot 18.5% Why Novak Djokovic is favoured Novak Djokovic's Elo (1916) is +236 over Valentin Vacherot (1680); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 86.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 81.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 81.5% vs market 66.4% (edge +22.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.