Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Shuai Zhang
To win
+$19.60
Total payout
$39.60
Joint prob
54.1%
Combined odds
1.98
Fair odds
1.85
Edge
+7.2%
Expected value: +$1.43 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.43 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 54.1% · fair market: 48.8% · edge: +10.8%
Shuai Zhang enters the Cincinnati Open after a mixed singles performance in Toronto, including a win over Yulia Putintseva and a retirement victory against Jelena Ostapenko. She also recently secured a WTA 1000 doubles title in Toronto, indicating strong form in that discipline.
Lineup: Expected to play in the first round of the Cincinnati Open.
Kayla Day arrives at the Cincinnati Open with strong momentum, having successfully qualified for the main draw with recent wins. She also secured a first-round victory in Toronto before falling to top player Coco Gauff.
Lineup: Expected to play in the first round of the Cincinnati Open.
“Shuai Zhang and Kayla Day set for Cincinnati Open clash with both players showing recent competitive form.”
Model probabilities Shuai Zhang 54.1% · Kayla Day 45.9% Why Shuai Zhang is favoured Shuai Zhang's Elo (1576) is +156 over Kayla Day (1420); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 80.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 54.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 54.1% vs market 48.8% (edge +10.8%, suggested Kelly +7.3% of bankroll). News context Shuai Zhang and Kayla Day set for Cincinnati Open clash with both players showing recent competitive form. Shuai Zhang: Shuai Zhang enters the Cincinnati Open after a mixed singles performance in Toronto, including a win over Yulia Putintseva and a retirement victory against Jelena Ostapenko. She also recently secured a WTA 1000 doubles title in Toronto, indicating strong form in that discipline. Kayla Day: Kayla Day arrives at the Cincinnati Open with strong momentum, having successfully qualified for the main draw with recent wins. She also secured a first-round victory in Toronto before falling to top player Coco Gauff.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.