Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fils
To win
+$24.40
Total payout
$44.40
Joint prob
78.2%
Combined odds
2.22
Fair odds
1.28
Edge
+73.7%
Expected value: +$14.74 on a $20 stake.
The ATP Canadian Open quarter-final match between Rafael Jodar and Arthur Fils, originally scheduled for August 10, 2026, was postponed to August 11, 2026, due to rain. Rafael Jodar has been involved in recent controversies regarding his on-court conduct, including a ball kid incident at the Canadian Open and a contentious medical timeout at the Washington Open, which have drawn fan criticism. Arthur Fils, despite a recent injury scare at the Washington Open, has declared himself fully fit and is reportedly in excellent form at the Canadian Open, having overcome previous hip and back injuries.
Rafael Jodar faced fan backlash for a ball kid incident at the Canadian Open, where he gestured for a ball kid to approach with his racket and then threw a towel at them, following a similar controversy at the French Open.
Rafael Jodar caused controversy by taking a medical timeout when Taylor Fritz was serving for the match in the Washington Open final, leading to accusations of 'gamemanship' from Fritz's coach.
Arthur Fils brushed off a recent injury scare from the Washington Open, assuring that his body is 'doing great' and he is feeling confident ahead of the Canadian Open.
Arthur Fils is reported to be playing in great shape at the Canadian Open, looking fully recovered and fresh after a minor injury that affected him in Washington.
Expected value: +$14.74 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 78.2% · fair market: 43.9% · edge: +78.1%
Model probabilities Rafael Jodar 21.8% · Arthur Fils 78.2% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1795) is +209 over Rafael Jodar (1586); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (20%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 15.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 21.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 78.2% vs market 43.9% (edge +78.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (20% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.