Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dalibor Svrcina
To win
+$14.80
Total payout
$34.80
Joint prob
64.1%
Combined odds
1.74
Fair odds
1.56
Edge
+11.6%
Expected value: +$2.31 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.31 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.1% · fair market: 55.0% · edge: +16.5%
Model probabilities Mark Lajal 35.9% · Dalibor Svrcina 64.1% Why Dalibor Svrcina is favoured Dalibor Svrcina's Elo (1504) is +17 over Mark Lajal (1487); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 44.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 35.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 64.1% vs market 55.0% (edge +16.5%, suggested Kelly +15.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.