Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ekaterina Alexandrova
To win
+$12.80
Total payout
$32.80
Joint prob
71.3%
Combined odds
1.64
Fair odds
1.40
Edge
+17.0%
Expected value: +$3.40 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$3.40 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 71.3% · fair market: 55.4% · edge: +28.7%
Model probabilities Ekaterina Alexandrova 71.3% · Aliaksandra Sasnovich 28.7% Why Ekaterina Alexandrova is favoured Ekaterina Alexandrova's Elo (1663) is +139 over Aliaksandra Sasnovich (1524); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 78.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 71.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 71.3% vs market 55.4% (edge +28.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.