Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Arthur Fils
To win
+$10.40
Total payout
$30.40
Joint prob
74.6%
Combined odds
1.52
Fair odds
1.34
Edge
+13.4%
Expected value: +$2.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.6% · fair market: 63.8% · edge: +16.9%
Model probabilities Arthur Fils 74.6% · Tomas Machac 25.4% Why Arthur Fils is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1785) is +148 over Tomas Machac (1637); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 79.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 74.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 74.6% vs market 63.8% (edge +16.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.