Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tallon Griekspoor
To win
+$9.60
Total payout
$29.60
Joint prob
77.2%
Combined odds
1.48
Fair odds
1.30
Edge
+14.2%
Expected value: +$2.84 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.84 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 77.2% · fair market: 65.7% · edge: +17.5%
Model probabilities Pavel Kotov 22.8% · Tallon Griekspoor 77.2% Why Tallon Griekspoor is favoured Tallon Griekspoor's Elo (1620) is +175 over Pavel Kotov (1445); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 17.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 22.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 77.2% vs market 65.7% (edge +17.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.