Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Daniel Altmaier
To win
+$123.40
Total payout
$143.40
Joint prob
16.0%
Combined odds
7.17
Fair odds
6.24
Edge
+14.9%
Expected value: +$2.99 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.99 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 16.0% · fair market: 13.5% · edge: +18.7%
Model probabilities Ben Shelton 84.0% · Daniel Altmaier 16.0% Why Ben Shelton is favoured Ben Shelton's Elo (1770) is +277 over Daniel Altmaier (1494); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.0% home · Platt-calibrated down to 84.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 16.0% vs market 13.5% (edge +18.7%, suggested Kelly +2.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.