Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Karolina Pliskova
To win
+$64.20
Total payout
$84.20
Joint prob
36.2%
Combined odds
4.21
Fair odds
2.76
Edge
+52.3%
Expected value: +$10.47 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.47 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 36.2% · fair market: 23.2% · edge: +56.1%
Model probabilities Karolina Pliskova 36.2% · Diana Shnaider 63.8% Why Diana Shnaider is favoured Diana Shnaider's Elo (1696) is +57 over Karolina Pliskova (1639); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 34.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 36.2% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 36.2% vs market 23.2% (edge +56.1%, suggested Kelly +16.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.