Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jakub Mensik
To win
+$8.80
Total payout
$28.80
Joint prob
70.5%
Combined odds
1.44
Fair odds
1.42
Edge
+1.6%
Expected value: +$0.32 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.32 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 70.5% · fair market: 67.5% · edge: +4.5%
Model probabilities Thiago Agustin Tirante 29.5% · Jakub Mensik 70.5% Why Jakub Mensik is favoured Jakub Mensik's Elo (1741) is +132 over Thiago Agustin Tirante (1609); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 22.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 29.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 70.5% vs market 67.5% (edge +4.5%, suggested Kelly +3.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.