Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alex de Minaur
To win
+$30.80
Total payout
$50.80
Joint prob
52.2%
Combined odds
2.54
Fair odds
1.91
Edge
+32.7%
Expected value: +$6.53 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.53 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.2% · fair market: 38.2% · edge: +36.7%
Model probabilities Arthur Fils 47.8% · Alex de Minaur 52.2% Why Alex de Minaur is favoured Arthur Fils's Elo (1793) is +24 over Alex de Minaur (1769); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 57.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 47.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 52.2% vs market 38.2% (edge +36.7%, suggested Kelly +21.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.