Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Daniel Altmaier
To win
+$26.60
Total payout
$46.60
Joint prob
53.0%
Combined odds
2.33
Fair odds
1.89
Edge
+23.6%
Expected value: +$4.71 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.71 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.0% · fair market: 41.8% · edge: +27.0%
Model probabilities Aleksandar Vukic 47.0% · Daniel Altmaier 53.0% Why Daniel Altmaier is favoured Daniel Altmaier's Elo (1487) is +10 over Aleksandar Vukic (1477); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 53.0% vs market 41.8% (edge +27.0%, suggested Kelly +17.7% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.