Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaume Munar
To win
+$26.40
Total payout
$46.40
Joint prob
80.4%
Combined odds
2.32
Fair odds
1.24
Edge
+86.5%
Expected value: +$17.29 on a $20 stake.
Alexander Blockx, who previously suffered a significant ankle injury in May 2026 and withdrew from subsequent tournaments, has shown a strong return to form by reaching the Estoril Open final on July 26, 2026. Jaume Munar has also confirmed his fitness by winning his first-round match at the Canadian Open on August 2-3, 2026. The recent strong performance by Blockx would change a sharp bettor's view, as it indicates he has fully recovered from his earlier injury concerns.
Jaume Munar is expected to play, having won his first-round match at the Canadian Open on August 2-3, 2026.
Alexander Blockx is expected to play, having recently reached the final of the Estoril Open on July 26, 2026, indicating a strong return to form after an earlier ankle injury.
Expected value: +$17.29 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 80.4% · fair market: 41.7% · edge: +92.7%
Model probabilities Jaume Munar 80.4% · Alexander Blockx 19.6% Why Jaume Munar is favoured Jaume Munar's Elo (1631) is +156 over Alexander Blockx (1475); high confidence. +EV vs market home: model 80.4% vs market 41.7% (edge +92.7%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.