Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Yushan Shao
To win
+$210.80
Total payout
$230.80
Joint prob
45.9%
Combined odds
11.54
Fair odds
2.18
Edge
+430.2%
Expected value: +$86.03 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$86.03 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 45.9% · fair market: 8.4% · edge: +446.1%
Model probabilities Yushan Shao 45.9% · Anastasia Zakharova 54.1% Calibration Raw model: 48.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 45.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 45.9% vs market 8.4% (edge +446.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).