Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Coco Gauff
To win
+$5.00
Total payout
$25.00
Joint prob
85.1%
Combined odds
1.25
Fair odds
1.18
Edge
+6.3%
Expected value: +$1.27 on a $20 stake.
Coco Gauff has stated that she is not in the best physical condition at the Canadian Open following a tough training block. She also mentioned that she uses practice sessions to release "negative energy" to maintain composure during matches. No integrity flags or other significant morale or key absence issues were reported for either player in the last 14 days.
Coco Gauff admitted to being "pretty negative" during her practice sessions in Toronto, using it as a way to release negative energy before matches to maintain composure.
Coco Gauff has indicated she is not in her best physical condition at the Canadian Open after a demanding training block.
Expected value: +$1.27 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 85.1% · fair market: 77.6% · edge: +9.6%
Model probabilities Maria Sakkari 14.9% · Coco Gauff 85.1% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1870) is +213 over Maria Sakkari (1657); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 85.1% vs market 77.6% (edge +9.6%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.