Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Denis Shapovalov
To win
+$28.80
Total payout
$48.80
Joint prob
57.0%
Combined odds
2.44
Fair odds
1.76
Edge
+39.0%
Expected value: +$7.80 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.80 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 57.0% · fair market: 39.8% · edge: +43.3%
Model probabilities Denis Shapovalov 57.0% · Karen Khachanov 43.0% Why Denis Shapovalov is favoured Denis Shapovalov's Elo (1617) is +30 over Karen Khachanov (1587); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 58.9% home · Platt-calibrated down to 57.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 57.0% vs market 39.8% (edge +43.3%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.