Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Polina Kudermetova
To win
+$23.80
Total payout
$43.80
Joint prob
55.6%
Combined odds
2.19
Fair odds
1.80
Edge
+21.8%
Expected value: +$4.36 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$4.36 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 55.6% · fair market: 43.8% · edge: +26.8%
Model probabilities Carol Young Suh Lee 44.4% · Polina Kudermetova 55.6% Calibration Raw model: 63.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 44.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 55.6% vs market 43.8% (edge +26.8%, suggested Kelly +18.3% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.