Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Brandon Nakashima
To win
+$13.40
Total payout
$33.40
Joint prob
60.5%
Combined odds
1.67
Fair odds
1.65
Edge
+1.0%
Expected value: +$0.21 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.21 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.5% · fair market: 58.1% · edge: +4.1%
Model probabilities Brandon Nakashima 60.5% · Matteo Berrettini 39.5% Why Brandon Nakashima is favoured Brandon Nakashima's Elo (1681) is +47 over Matteo Berrettini (1634); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 63.3% home · Platt-calibrated down to 60.5% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 60.5% vs market 58.1% (edge +4.1%, suggested Kelly +1.6% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.