Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Andrey Rublev
To win
+$14.80
Total payout
$34.80
Joint prob
64.0%
Combined odds
1.74
Fair odds
1.56
Edge
+11.3%
Expected value: +$2.26 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.26 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 64.0% · fair market: 56.1% · edge: +14.1%
Model probabilities Daniel Merida Aguilar 36.0% · Andrey Rublev 64.0% Why Andrey Rublev is favoured Andrey Rublev's Elo (1643) is +59 over Daniel Merida Aguilar (1584); low confidence. Calibration Raw model: 34.0% home · Platt-calibrated up to 36.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 64.0% vs market 56.1% (edge +14.1%, suggested Kelly +15.3% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (35% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.