Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Jaime Faria
To win
+$80.00
Total payout
$100.00
Joint prob
38.0%
Combined odds
5.00
Fair odds
2.63
Edge
+89.9%
Expected value: +$17.97 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$17.97 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 38.0% · fair market: 19.5% · edge: +94.9%
Model probabilities Ben Shelton 62.0% · Jaime Faria 38.0% Why Ben Shelton is favoured Ben Shelton's Elo (1789) is +280 over Jaime Faria (1508); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 89.2% home · Platt-calibrated down to 62.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 38.0% vs market 19.5% (edge +94.9%, suggested Kelly +22.5% of bankroll).