Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Dane Sweeny
To win
+$44.60
Total payout
$64.60
Joint prob
32.6%
Combined odds
3.23
Fair odds
3.07
Edge
+5.4%
Expected value: +$1.07 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.07 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 32.6% · fair market: 30.1% · edge: +8.4%
Model probabilities Dane Sweeny 32.6% · Corentin Moutet 67.4% Why Corentin Moutet is favoured Corentin Moutet's Elo (1564) is +92 over Dane Sweeny (1473); medium confidence. Calibration Raw model: 27.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 32.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 32.6% vs market 30.1% (edge +8.4%, suggested Kelly +2.4% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (40% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.