Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Bernard Tomic
To win
+$38.00
Total payout
$58.00
Joint prob
48.9%
Combined odds
2.90
Fair odds
2.04
Edge
+41.8%
Expected value: +$8.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 48.9% · fair market: 33.5% · edge: +46.1%
Model probabilities Bernard Tomic 48.9% · Matteo Arnaldi 51.1% +EV vs market home: model 48.9% vs market 33.5% (edge +46.1%, suggested Kelly +22.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.