Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Diane Parry
To win
+$13.80
Total payout
$33.80
Joint prob
63.5%
Combined odds
1.69
Fair odds
1.58
Edge
+7.2%
Expected value: +$1.45 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.45 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.5% · fair market: 57.4% · edge: +10.5%
Model probabilities Taylah Preston 36.5% · Diane Parry 63.5% Why Diane Parry is favoured Diane Parry's Elo (1577) is +49 over Taylah Preston (1528); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 63.5% vs market 57.4% (edge +10.5%, suggested Kelly +10.5% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.