Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Casper Ruud
To win
+$13.60
Total payout
$33.60
Joint prob
59.6%
Combined odds
1.68
Fair odds
1.68
Edge
+0.1%
Expected value: +$0.02 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.02 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 59.6% · fair market: 57.6% · edge: +3.5%
Model probabilities Bu Yunchaokete 40.4% · Casper Ruud 59.6% Why Casper Ruud is favoured Casper Ruud's Elo (1632) is +41 over Bu Yunchaokete (1591); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 38.2% home · Platt-calibrated up to 40.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 59.6% vs market 57.6% (edge +3.5%, suggested Kelly +0.1% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.