Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Tristan Schoolkate
To win
+$88.00
Total payout
$108.00
Joint prob
26.6%
Combined odds
5.40
Fair odds
3.77
Edge
+43.4%
Expected value: +$8.67 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$8.67 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 26.6% · fair market: 18.1% · edge: +47.0%
Model probabilities Tristan Schoolkate 26.6% · Flavio Cobolli 73.4% Why Flavio Cobolli is favoured Flavio Cobolli's Elo (1633) is +178 over Tristan Schoolkate (1455); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 17.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 26.6% vs market 18.1% (edge +47.1%, suggested Kelly +9.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.