Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maria Camila Osorio Serrano
To win
+$19.80
Total payout
$39.80
Joint prob
53.7%
Combined odds
1.99
Fair odds
1.86
Edge
+6.8%
Expected value: +$1.35 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.35 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 53.7% · fair market: 48.8% · edge: +9.8%
Model probabilities Lanlana Tararudee 46.3% · Maria Camila Osorio Serrano 53.7% Why Maria Camila Osorio Serrano is favoured Elo essentially level (1498 vs 1502) — winner depends on context. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (10%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 48.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 46.3% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 53.7% vs market 48.8% (edge +9.8%, suggested Kelly +6.8% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (10% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.