Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ben Shelton
To win
+$7.20
Total payout
$27.20
Joint prob
75.6%
Combined odds
1.36
Fair odds
1.32
Edge
+2.8%
Expected value: +$0.57 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.57 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 75.6% · fair market: 71.1% · edge: +6.4%
Model probabilities Ben Shelton 75.6% · Cameron Norrie 24.4% Why Ben Shelton is favoured Ben Shelton's Elo (1770) is +159 over Cameron Norrie (1611); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 80.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 75.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 75.6% vs market 71.1% (edge +6.4%, suggested Kelly +7.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.