Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Titouan Droguet
To win
+$24.00
Total payout
$44.00
Joint prob
60.4%
Combined odds
2.20
Fair odds
1.66
Edge
+32.8%
Expected value: +$6.55 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$6.55 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 60.4% · fair market: 43.6% · edge: +38.5%
Model probabilities Alexei Popyrin 39.6% · Titouan Droguet 60.4% Why Titouan Droguet is favoured Alexei Popyrin's Elo (1529) is +12 over Titouan Droguet (1517); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 53.5% home · Platt-calibrated down to 39.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 60.4% vs market 43.6% (edge +38.5%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.