Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Kei Nishikori
To win
+$86.20
Total payout
$106.20
Joint prob
20.8%
Combined odds
5.31
Fair odds
4.82
Edge
+10.2%
Expected value: +$2.04 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.04 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 20.8% · fair market: 18.3% · edge: +13.4%
Model probabilities Kei Nishikori 20.8% · Frances Tiafoe 79.2% Why Frances Tiafoe is favoured Frances Tiafoe's Elo (1746) is +184 over Kei Nishikori (1562); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 17.1% home · Platt-calibrated up to 20.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 20.8% vs market 18.3% (edge +13.4%, suggested Kelly +2.4% of bankroll).