Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Juan Manuel Cerundolo
To win
+$317.40
Total payout
$337.40
Joint prob
6.8%
Combined odds
16.87
Fair odds
14.81
Edge
+13.9%
Expected value: +$2.78 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.78 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 6.8% · fair market: 5.8% · edge: +17.3%
Model probabilities Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6.8% · Carlos Alcaraz 93.2% Why Carlos Alcaraz is favoured Carlos Alcaraz's Elo (2042) is +493 over Juan Manuel Cerundolo (1549); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 3.6% home · Platt-calibrated up to 6.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 6.8% vs market 5.8% (edge +17.3%, suggested Kelly +0.9% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.