Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Lucie Havlickova
To win
+$31.60
Total payout
$51.60
Joint prob
41.8%
Combined odds
2.58
Fair odds
2.39
Edge
+7.8%
Expected value: +$1.57 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.57 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 41.8% · fair market: 37.7% · edge: +10.9%
Model probabilities Lucie Havlickova 41.8% · Anna Bondár 58.2% Why Anna Bondár is favoured Anna Bondár's Elo (1491) is +15 over Lucie Havlickova (1476); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 45.4% home · Platt-calibrated down to 41.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market home: model 41.8% vs market 37.7% (edge +10.9%, suggested Kelly +5.0% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.