Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Marin Cilic
To win
+$28.80
Total payout
$48.80
Joint prob
63.2%
Combined odds
2.44
Fair odds
1.58
Edge
+54.2%
Expected value: +$10.85 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$10.85 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 63.2% · fair market: 39.8% · edge: +59.0%
Model probabilities Arthur Fery 36.8% · Marin Cilic 63.2% Why Marin Cilic is favoured Marin Cilic's Elo (1571) is +59 over Arthur Fery (1512); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 33.8% home · Platt-calibrated up to 36.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 63.2% vs market 39.8% (edge +59.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.