Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$6.20
Total payout
$26.20
Joint prob
81.4%
Combined odds
1.31
Fair odds
1.23
Edge
+6.6%
Expected value: +$1.32 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.32 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 81.4% · fair market: 74.3% · edge: +9.5%
Model probabilities Maria Sakkari 18.6% · Elina Svitolina 81.4% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1871) is +232 over Maria Sakkari (1639); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 13.7% home · Platt-calibrated up to 18.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 81.4% vs market 74.3% (edge +9.5%, suggested Kelly +21.2% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.