Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Alina Korneeva
To win
+$43.80
Total payout
$63.80
Joint prob
34.6%
Combined odds
3.19
Fair odds
2.89
Edge
+10.4%
Expected value: +$2.09 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$2.09 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 34.6% · fair market: 30.5% · edge: +13.5%
Model probabilities Madison Keys 65.4% · Alina Korneeva 34.6% Why Madison Keys is favoured Madison Keys's Elo (1781) is +210 over Alina Korneeva (1571); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 84.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 65.4% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 34.6% vs market 30.5% (edge +13.5%, suggested Kelly +4.8% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.