Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sebastian Gorzny
To win
+$291.00
Total payout
$311.00
Joint prob
30.4%
Combined odds
15.55
Fair odds
3.29
Edge
+372.6%
Expected value: +$74.52 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$74.52 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 30.4% · fair market: 6.3% · edge: +384.8%
Model probabilities Daniil Medvedev 69.6% · Sebastian Gorzny 30.4% Calibration Raw model: 89.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 69.6% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 30.4% vs market 6.3% (edge +384.8%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.