Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Ann Li
To win
+$97.80
Total payout
$117.80
Joint prob
27.3%
Combined odds
5.89
Fair odds
3.67
Edge
+60.6%
Expected value: +$12.12 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$12.12 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 27.3% · fair market: 16.5% · edge: +65.7%
Model probabilities Coco Gauff 72.7% · Ann Li 27.3% Why Coco Gauff is favoured Coco Gauff's Elo (1901) is +334 over Ann Li (1567); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 91.7% home · Platt-calibrated down to 72.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 27.3% vs market 16.5% (edge +65.7%, suggested Kelly +12.4% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.