Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Rinky Hijikata
To win
+$28.20
Total payout
$48.20
Joint prob
57.3%
Combined odds
2.41
Fair odds
1.74
Edge
+38.1%
Expected value: +$7.63 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$7.63 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 57.3% · fair market: 40.3% · edge: +42.1%
Model probabilities Luciano Darderi 42.7% · Rinky Hijikata 57.3% Why Rinky Hijikata is favoured Luciano Darderi's Elo (1549) is +35 over Rinky Hijikata (1514); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 60.1% home · Platt-calibrated down to 42.7% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 57.3% vs market 40.3% (edge +42.1%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.