Model probabilities Naomi Osaka 57.0% · Elise Mertens 43.0% Why Naomi Osaka is favoured Naomi Osaka's Elo (1750) is +99 over Elise Mertens (1651); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 73.6% home · Platt-calibrated down to 57.0% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches.