Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Matteo Berrettini
To win
+$25.60
Total payout
$45.60
Joint prob
44.1%
Combined odds
2.28
Fair odds
2.27
Edge
+0.6%
Expected value: +$0.13 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$0.13 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 44.1% · fair market: 42.6% · edge: +3.7%
Model probabilities Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 55.9% · Matteo Berrettini 44.1% Why Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is favoured Alejandro Davidovich Fokina's Elo (1665) is +37 over Matteo Berrettini (1628); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 60.8% home · Platt-calibrated down to 55.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 44.1% vs market 42.6% (edge +3.7%, suggested Kelly +0.5% of bankroll).