Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Maria Sakkari
To win
+$10.80
Total payout
$30.80
Joint prob
76.9%
Combined odds
1.54
Fair odds
1.30
Edge
+18.4%
Expected value: +$3.69 on a $20 stake.
Kamilla Rakhimova enters the Round of 64 at the WTA Cincinnati Open having won her first-round match against Kimberly Birrell on August 13, 2026. Maria Sakkari, seeded 29th, received a first-round bye and will be playing her opening match of the tournament. No integrity flags, morale issues, or new key absences for either player have been reported in the last 14 days.
Kamilla Rakhimova has already played and won her first-round match at the Cincinnati Open, defeating Kimberly Birrell 6-2, 6-2 on August 13, 2026. She entered the main draw as a replacement for the injured Lois Boisson.
Maria Sakkari, as the 29th seed, received a bye in the first round of the Cincinnati Open and will be making her tournament debut in this match.
Expected value: +$3.69 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 76.9% · fair market: 63.1% · edge: +21.9%
Model probabilities Kamilla Rakhimova 23.1% · Maria Sakkari 76.9% Why Maria Sakkari is favoured Maria Sakkari's Elo (1650) is +180 over Kamilla Rakhimova (1470); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 17.5% home · Platt-calibrated up to 23.1% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 76.9% vs market 63.1% (edge +21.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.