Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Elina Svitolina
To win
+$15.00
Total payout
$35.00
Joint prob
73.1%
Combined odds
1.75
Fair odds
1.37
Edge
+27.9%
Expected value: +$5.58 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.58 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 73.1% · fair market: 55.8% · edge: +31.0%
Model probabilities Qinwen Zheng 26.9% · Elina Svitolina 73.1% Why Elina Svitolina is favoured Elina Svitolina's Elo (1883) is +130 over Qinwen Zheng (1753); high confidence. Calibration Raw model: 22.3% home · Platt-calibrated up to 26.9% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 73.1% vs market 55.8% (edge +31.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.