Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Amanda Anisimova
To win
+$21.20
Total payout
$41.20
Joint prob
62.3%
Combined odds
2.06
Fair odds
1.61
Edge
+28.3%
Expected value: +$5.66 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$5.66 on a $20 stake.
Market: Pinnacle ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 62.3% · fair market: 47.2% · edge: +32.0%
Model probabilities Linda Noskova 37.7% · Amanda Anisimova 62.3% Why Amanda Anisimova is favoured Amanda Anisimova's Elo (1816) is +45 over Linda Noskova (1771); high confidence. +EV vs market away: model 62.3% vs market 47.2% (edge +32.0%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).