Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Sonay Kartal
To win
+$8.80
Total payout
$28.80
Joint prob
74.2%
Combined odds
1.44
Fair odds
1.35
Edge
+6.8%
Expected value: +$1.37 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$1.37 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 74.2% · fair market: 64.4% · edge: +15.3%
Model probabilities Alina Charaeva 25.8% · Sonay Kartal 74.2% Why Sonay Kartal is favoured Sonay Kartal's Elo (1655) is +125 over Alina Charaeva (1530); low confidence. But — counter-arguments Elo confidence is low (5%) — ratings are based on a thin sample, so the prediction itself is wider than the headline number suggests. Calibration Raw model: 22.9% home · Platt-calibrated up to 25.8% based on historical reliability across this sport's graded matches. +EV vs market away: model 74.2% vs market 64.4% (edge +15.3%, suggested Kelly +15.5% of bankroll). Confidence note Elo data on these teams is thin (5% sample-size confidence); headline number is sharper than the underlying signal — treat it as directional, not absolute.
No-vig implied probabilities from recorded snapshots. Line moving toward one side means the market is re-pricing in that team's favour — compare to the model to see who's ahead.