Single · moneyline
Sharpest call · Emerson Jones
To win
+$43.00
Total payout
$63.00
Joint prob
52.3%
Combined odds
3.15
Fair odds
1.91
Edge
+64.7%
Expected value: +$12.94 on a $20 stake.
Expected value: +$12.94 on a $20 stake.
Market: Betfair ·
Quarter-Kelly (25%) is the common safe default. Full Kelly is mathematically optimal but volatile.
Model probability: 52.3% · fair market: 31.5% · edge: +65.9%
Model probabilities Emerson Jones 52.3% · Lanlana Tararudee 47.7% +EV vs market home: model 52.3% vs market 31.5% (edge +65.9%, suggested Kelly +25.0% of bankroll).